The "50% of Marriages End in Divorce" Stat Is a Myth

As a marriage celebrant who sits in aircraft going to weddings every week, I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve been seated next to someone who insists on telling me, “I don’t need to get married because 50% of all marriages end in divorce.”

These well-meaning armchair statisticians usually share this tidbit with a smug certainty, as if it’s a proven fact. 🙄

It’s often an older gentleman on the plane with lots of opinions about marriage and weddings. I always smile politely and listen to their “marriage is sad” stories.

But inside I am always thinking: where are they getting these numbers from?

Because that scary “half of all marriages fail” number is completely misleading – and it always has been.

The 50% Divorce Rate Myth

Let’s clear this up right away: the divorce rate has never actually been 50%. 🔗

Half of marriages have never ended in divorce, despite what endless articles and barstool experts claim. So how did this myth get started?

It turns out the origin of the “50%” figure traces back to the 1970s, when no-fault divorce laws were introduced.

Suddenly, couples could split up without proving wrongdoing. Divorces spiked in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and some experts projected that if those trends continued, eventually half of marriages might end in divorce. 🔗

In other words, 50% was a speculative projection – not an actual reality.

In reality, the 50% divorce rate was never the reality. This number is based on projections from the 1970s that it eventually would get that high. But it never did.

Unfortunately, that projected number took on a life of its own. It got misquoted so often, for so long, that people started accepting “half of marriages end in divorce” as if it were gospel truth.

Over the years, the media and pop culture kept repeating it, even though the actual data never quite supported the 50% claim.

Another reason this myth refuses to die is due to a flawed statistic that was commonly used: comparing the number of marriages in a given year to the number of divorces in that same year. For example, in 2014 the U.S. had about 17 marriages and 8.7 divorces per 1,000 women – divide divorces by marriages and you get roughly 51%. 🔗

But the couples marrying in 2014 weren’t the ones divorcing in 2014! It’s a statistical apples-to-oranges mistake. 🔗

Thankfully, researchers have debunked that method, noting that it misrepresents reality. 🔗

So what is the reality?

Divorce Rates: Falling

The good news is that divorce rates aren’t nearly as grim as the myth suggests. In fact, recent analyses indicate that only about one-third of American marriages end in divorce – not anywhere close to 50%. The divorce rate peaked around 1980 and has been declining ever since.

You read that right: divorce has actually been on the decline for decades.

People like you and me, we make better decisions than our parents did.

Back in the 1970s and ’80s following no-fault divorce, only 65% of marriages made it to the 15-year mark. But in the 1990s, that number went up to 70%. And the overall divorce rate per marriages actually went down, and it has been declining.

– Attachment Adam (@attachmentadam), via Threads

What about Australia? The story is similar. Divorce figures here are at their lowest level in 50 years. 🔗

In 2023, Australia saw just 2.3 divorces per 1,000 adults (aged 16+), continuing a long downward trend (for context, it was 3.4 per 1,000 in 2000). In other words, the chance that an Aussie marriage will end in legal divorce is now the lowest it’s been since the mid-1970s.

Marriage isn’t crumbling; it’s stronger than the doomsayers claim.

So why does the myth persist? One reason is that the Baby Boomer generation skews the stats. Boomers led the divorce surge in the ’70s and have racked up the most divorces of any generation – even now, they continue to divorce at higher rates (including “grey divorces” in their 60s and 70s).

Every generation since the Boomers has divorced less.

Younger generations (Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z) are more cautious about marriage – many marry later, or not at all – and they aren’t divorcing nearly as often as their Boomer parents did.

The Baby Boomer generation led the way on the divorce explosion and has continued to produce more divorces. They still hold the highest divorce rate of any generation ever studied. Every generation since has divorced LESS. The divorce rate is decreasing.

Part of this decline is indeed because fewer people are getting married overall, and they’re marrying at older ages.

In Australia, the median age of brides is now 30 and grooms 31 – about 8 years older than couples in 1975. 🔗

Many couples live together before marriage (about 83% do, vs only 16% in the 1970s), essentially a marital “try before you buy.” That means some relationships that might have ended in divorce a generation ago now simply end in a breakup during cohabitation – which doesn’t show up in divorce statistics.

So yes, the pool of marriages today might be more self-selected for success (people who aren’t sure often delay or avoid marriage). But the bottom line remains: those who do marry today have a better chance of making it than couples who married in the past.

To put it plainly, if you’re getting married in the 2020s, the odds are very much in your favor that you won’t divorce. So much for my mate on the plane and his 50% story.

Who Does Get Divorced?

Even though the overall divorce risk is far lower than 50%, it’s also true that divorce is not evenly distributed among everyone. Certain factors can influence divorce rates. For instance:

• Education: Couples with more education have markedly lower divorce rates. In the U.S., roughly 39% of men with only a high school education (or less) will divorce in their lifetime (and about 37% of similarly educated women will). But among those with a degree, divorce rates drop to around 28% for men and 29% for women. Higher education often brings higher income, later marriage age, and other stability factors that protect marriage. Advanced degree holders are in the same low range (~26% for men, 30% for women).

• Age at Marriage: Marrying very young (teens or early twenties) is a known risk factor for divorce. Couples who marry later (late 20s or beyond) tend to have more stable marriages on average. For example, in Australia the highest divorce rates historically were for marriages that began at very young ages – whereas those who marry in their 30s or later divorce much less.

• Remarriages and Serial Divorce: A lot of divorces are repeat divorces by the same individuals. Someone who’s on their second or third marriage is statistically more likely to divorce again. In fact, multiple divorces by a single person can inflate the stats. (We all know that one celebrity or acquaintance who’s been divorced 3, 4, even 5 times!) As one analyst quipped, some folks “get a taste for it” – meaning a subset of people account for a disproportionate number of divorces. So the true percentage of individuals who ever divorce at least once is lower than the percentage of marriages that end in divorce. One person ending five marriages is not the same as five different couples each divorcing once – but a crude divorce rate doesn’t distinguish the two scenarios.

• Ethnicity and Background: Demographics play a role too. For instance, in the U.S., about 42% of Black men and women have been divorced (or remarried) – a bit higher than the national average – while the rates for White Americans are around 36-38%. Hispanic communities see lower divorce rates (around 27% of men and 30% of women) and Asian Americans have the lowest (only 16% of men and 18% of women have divorced). Culturally, attitudes toward marriage and divorce differ, and socioeconomic factors vary across groups, influencing these stats. (Australian data by cultural background show similar patterns – for example, communities with strong cultural or religious disapproval of divorce tend to have lower rates.)

• Other Factors: Everything from financial stress to parental divorce to values can tilt the odds. Regular religious attendance, for example, has been linked with lower divorce risk in some studies. Personal habits and compatibility matter too – for instance, how couples handle conflict and communication can make or break a marriage. There’s even data on seemingly odd correlations (like divorce rates by occupation, or whether you smoke, etc.), but those are more fun facts than destiny. The key point: your choices and circumstances affect your marriage’s success more than some random statistic. As Attachment Adam says, smart planning and healthy relationship skills can drive your divorce risk down to almost zero if you do it right.

The big picture is that marriage is not a coin toss. It’s not some 50/50 gamble where you’re equally likely to fail as succeed. Not at all! By being mindful about when and whom you marry, and by nurturing the relationship, you stack the odds heavily in favor of success.

The Upside of Marriage

Okay, so we’ve debunked the big scary divorce stat. But beyond avoiding divorce, why bother getting married at all?

As someone who literally makes a living from weddings and also enjoys being married, I might be biased – but hear me out: Marriage comes with some serious perks.

And I’m not just talking about love and companionship (though those are awesome too!). I’m talking hard data on wealth, health, and happiness.

Numerous studies over the past 140 years have found that married people tend to live longer and healthier lives than their unmarried counterparts. 🔗

Having a spouse can provide emotional support, help in times of illness, and even accountability for healthy behaviors (like someone nagging you to see the doctor or eat your veggies). In fact, one long-term study showed that by age 50, men who were divorced had significantly worse health profiles and higher mortality risk than men who stayed married – but if those divorced men remarried, their health status bounced back closer to that of continuously married men. The implication: a good marriage can be a protective factor for your health.

There’s a reason people jokingly say “marriage is the cheapest health insurance.”

Financially, marriage can be a financial proposition too. Married couples often accumulate more wealth over time. Think about it: two incomes (or one income and one dedicated home-manager – teamwork in either case), shared living expenses, and the ability to pool resources gives married households an economic edge. The U.S. Federal Reserve has found that the wealth gap between married and single adults is huge and growing. For example, among young adults (age 25–34), the median net worth of a married couple is nearly 9 times greater than that of a single person of the same age. 🔗

In 2010 it was 4x, by 2019 it was 9x – the gap keeps widening! 🔗

Overall, in 2019 married households had about $60,000 more in net worth on average than single households. 🔗

Married couples are also far more likely to be homeowners, which is a key driver of wealth. 🔗

Simply put, it’s easier for two people to build wealth together than for one person alone – economies of scale are real. (And yes, divorce can reverse some of these gains – but as we’ve seen, divorce is not the norm for most).

When it comes to happiness, marriage shines as well.

Survey data consistently show that, on average, married people report higher life satisfaction than singles. One prominent analysis noted that “married couples on average report more happiness, build more wealth, live longer, and raise more successful children than single parents or cohabiting couples”. 🔗

In recent General Social Survey results, about 40% of married people (in their prime years) say they are “very happy” with life, versus only about 20% of unmarried folks. 🔗 🔗

That’s a double likelihood of being very happy!

In fact, one study found a 30 percentage-point happiness gap between married and unmarried Americans. 🔗

Marriage was identified as “the most important differentiator” of who is happy and who isn’t. 🔗

And this trend holds for both men and women – having a spouse (and often, having children with that spouse) is strongly linked to greater happiness in life. 🔗 🔗

Now, of course, these are averages – an unhappy marriage won’t magically make you healthy or rich (in fact, a toxic marriage can be worse than being single). And being single doesn’t doom anyone to misery; plenty of single individuals live wonderful lives.

But statistically speaking, marriage tends to provide a framework that helps people thrive. There’s something to be said for having a partner to share life’s ups and downs, to encourage you, to combine forces with you to achieve goals. It’s like having a permanent life teammate. 👫 Teamwork makes the dream work, as they say.

Also, let’s not overlook the intangible benefits: the sense of security, the deep companionship, the shared history and inside jokes, the joy of creating a family together (if you choose to), and the knowledge that someone has promised to love you even when you’re old and cranky.

That stuff might not show up in statistics, but ask any happily married couple – it’s priceless.

Don’t Fear Marriage

The next time someone tries to tell you, “Marriage is pointless, half of them end in divorce anyway,” you can confidently roll your eyes (at least internally) and remember that this simply isn’t true. The 50% divorce figure is a myth that has never been reflected in real-world data. 🔗

Marriage is not a coin flip, it’s an intentioanl effort which requires all of you, and it’s certainly not a death sentence to your happiness or finances.

When entered into thoughtfully and intentionally, marriage can be one of the best investments you make in your future.

That doesn’t mean marriage is easy. Like anything worthwhile, it takes effort. I like to view it as work, but not the type of work that you go to every day begrudginly, but instead it’s work like an artist, a work of creation.

The payoff can be huge. If you communicate well, support each other, and maintain mutual respect, the odds are overwhelming that you’ll stay together “’til death do us part.”

In fact, that’s how most marriages end – not by divorce, but by one partner eventually passing away after a lifetime together.

Technically 100% of marriages will end in one of their funeral – that’s just existing on planet earth, none of us make it out alive. The point is, while you’re alive, you get to choose to make your marriage as awesome as it can be.

As a celebrant, I often tell couples: start your marriage how you want it to continue. That’s why I believe having a joyful, personalized wedding is important – it sets the tone for the adventure you’re embarking on. You’re not just throwing a party; you’re declaring to each other and your community that you’re all in on this partnership. That optimism and commitment at the start will carry you through the tough times later.

So don’t be afraid of marriage because of some warped statistic you heard on a plane or on social media. The truth is, marriage done right is absolutely worth it. The data is on your side, and so am I.

Here’s to love, to truth, and to setting off on the grand journey of marriage with confidence!

Sources:

• Hurley, D. (2005). Divorce Rate: It’s Not as High as You Think. New York Times adamdivorcelaw.com.
• Swanson, A. (2016). Who gets divorced in America, in 7 charts. Washington Post washingtonpost.com washingtonpost.com.
• Goldberg Jones. (2024). Is the 50% Divorce Rate a Myth? goldbergjones-or.com + goldbergjones-or.com.
• Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS). (2025). Divorce Rates at Lowest Level in 50 Years miragenews.com oai_citation:46‡miragenews.com.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics. Marriages and Divorces, Australia, 2023 miragenews.com.
• Institute for Family Studies. (2023). Who Is Happiest? Married Mothers and Fathers… ifstudies.org + ifstudies.org.
• RAND Corporation. Health, Marriage, and Longer Life for Men. rand.org.
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Survey of Consumer Finances (cited in Moneywise) reddit.com + moneywise.com.
• AttachmentAdam (@attachmentadam). (2025). Thread on divorce statistics and myths (Threads social media post).